People tend to infer the motives -- and also the disposition --
of someone who performs an action based on the effects of his
actions, and not on external or situational factors. If you see
someone violently hitting someone else, you assume it's because
he wanted to -- and is a violent person -- and not because he's
play-acting. If you read about someone getting into a car
accident, you assume it's because he's a bad driver and not
because he was simply unlucky. And -- more importantly for this
column -- if you read about a terrorist, you assume that
terrorism is his ultimate goal.
... the most insightful part is when Abrams uses correspondent
inference theory to explain why terrorist groups that primarily
attack civilians do not achieve their policy goals, even if they
are minimalist. Abrams writes:
The theory posited here is that terrorist groups that target
civilians are unable to coerce policy change because terrorism
has an extremely high correspondence. Countries believe that
their civilian populations are attacked not because the terrorist
group is protesting unfavorable external conditions such as
territorial occupation or poverty. Rather, target countries infer
the short-term consequences of terrorism -- the deaths of
innocent civilians, mass fear, loss of confidence in the
government to offer protection, economic contraction, and the
inevitable erosion of civil liberties -- (are) the objects of the
terrorist groups. In short, target countries view the negative
consequences of terrorist attacks on their societies and
political systems as evidence that the terrorists want them
destroyed. Target countries are understandably skeptical that
making concessions will placate terrorist groups believed to be
motivated by these maximalist objectives.
In other words, terrorism doesn't work, because it makes people
less likely to acquiesce to the terrorists' demands, no matter
how limited they might be. The reaction to terrorism has an
effect completely opposite to what the terrorists want; people
simply don't believe those limited demands are the actual
demands.