January 27, 2007

Belief

I was listening to the BBC News Hour this morning. They were covering the recent Science report on fish stock depletion and, in the course of the report, interviewed a British fisherman about the report.

The question asked, of course, was “do you believe this report?” And the fisherman’s reply, of course, was, “no, we don’t believe the report.” With the use of the word believe all scientific research and logical analysis is thrown out the window. If we don’t believe the report it can’t possibly be true.

I know this has already been done to death – this is just truthiness in disguise – but it just astounds me that, on so many fronts, so many are able and willing to ignore hard numbers and logic to make themselves feel better.

Environmental issues are the most galling. Whether it’s global warming or fish stock depletion these are issues where it will do less harm to act in a cautionary manner and fix things now than it will be to sit and wait and see if the shit hits the fan. If we turn out to be wrong and global environmental collapse is not imminent we have not wasted money or time; our world will be a better place if we reduce emissions, utilize renewable energy and fish more responsibly.

In business, if your accountant told you the company would be bankrupt in a year, it would be foolhardy to spend as if that were not the case. Why, when our scientists (whose business it is to investigate the world and predict future trends) tell us the Earth will be bankrupt in 50 years, do we choose not to believe them?